Two Late QBs Has Been a Winning Fantasy Strategy
· By PigskinPal · 0 comments
A lot of the best fantasy quarterbacks every year are guys nobody drafted early. Here’s why taking two late ones is the better strategy, and the streamer of the week: Jacoby Brissett.
In each of the last three seasons, at least one top-5 fantasy quarterback in PPG wasn’t among the first 12 drafted. Last year it was two: Drake Maye went 17th and finished 3rd, and Matthew Stafford went 23rd and finished 5th. That’s why taking two late quarterbacks keeps working.
It’s happening again this year. Jared Goff went around QB16 in drafts and is QB2 in points per game (22.2). Brock Purdy went around QB11 and is QB6 (20.9).
We went back through the last four seasons to prove the advantage.
The late guys hit a lot
From 2022 to 2025, about 46% of the top 12 quarterbacks (by points per game) weren’t one of the first 12 quarterbacks drafted. Some were waiver wire adds.
| Season | Late QBs in the top 12 | Best one |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7 | Drake Maye: drafted 17th, finished 3rd |
| 2024 | 5 | Jayden Daniels: drafted 13th, finished 3rd |
| 2023 | 4 | Jordan Love: drafted 23rd, finished 5th |
| 2022 | 6 | Justin Fields: drafted 18th, finished 7th |
Any one late quarterback is a long shot, about 1 in 3 to finish top 12. Taking 2 improves your odds to 53%. And if neither hits, they’re late picks, so it doesn’t cost you much, and you can recover by streaming options.
Where it really pays off
To be fair, the elite quarterbacks usually do score more, about 4 to 6 points a week more than a late pair. But you pay a third-round pick for that. Using that pick on an RB or WR instead usually makes up the difference and then some.
Here’s the trade, in points per week:
| Year | Elite QB | Late QB Duo | RB/WR edge | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21.3 | 16.4 | +4.3 | −0.6 |
| 2023 | 20.4 | 15.6 | +6.6 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 20.3 | 16.6 | +4.9 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 17.1 | 17.3 | +4.2 | +4.4 |
| 2026* | 20.6 | 16.9 | +8.4 | +4.7 |
Elite QB: the average of the top 3 QBs drafted. Late QB Duo: the average of every pair of QBs drafted 13th–24th, starting whichever has the better Vegas matchup each week. That’s the typical duo, not the best case: last year’s best pair, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, scored about 21.5 a week. RB/WR edge: extra points from spending that early pick on a running back or receiver. Net: points per week the late-pair team comes out ahead. *2026 through Week 7.
Over the last four seasons, waiting on a QB came out about even in 2022, then proved an advantage in 2023, 2024 and 2025, and it’s ahead again so far this year. Last year it wasn’t close, mostly because Joe Burrow got hurt and Lamar Jackson missed time and slumped.
Picking the better matchup each week only helps a little on average, maybe half a point. Most weeks your two guys score about the same. But some weeks one of them has a clearly better spot, and that’s when it matters.
It also gives you roster flexibility. Neither quarterback cost you much, so you’re never stuck with one. If one busts, drop him for the hot waiver guy without wasting an early pick. If one breaks out, you have a top quarterback on your hands that you didn’t have to pay full price for.
This week’s case study: Jacoby Brissett
Brissett isn’t a drafted late quarterback. He’s a waiver pickup. But he’s the same idea taken one step further: don’t pay for quarterback, play the matchup. The two late QB plan already leans on the waiver wire for bye weeks, injuries, and busts, and this is what a good waiver quarterback looks like. If one of your late guys has a bad matchup or a bye this week, Brissett is who you grab.
He’s done it before. He went undrafted last year and still finished 9th in points per game. This year he’s started in only 12% of ESPN leagues, and PigskinPal has him as the QB9 this week at 18.3 points, ahead of Jared Goff, Caleb Williams and Patrick Mahomes.
Why we like him at Dallas:
- It’s expected to be a shootout. The over/under is 54.5, tied for the highest of the week, and the Cardinals are 7-point underdogs, so they should be throwing a lot. He’s thrown 47 and 48 times in two of his last three games.
- Dallas can’t stop quarterbacks. Every starter who finished a game against them this year scored 20 or more! The only two who didn’t were backups.
- He takes advantage of bad defenses. He’s not a star, but he threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns against Detroit earlier this year. Last year at Dallas he had 261 yards and two touchdowns.
- Jeremiyah Love is back from his ankle injury, which gives him another guy to dump it off to next to Trey McBride.
Bottom line
If one of your quarterbacks has a tough matchup this week, pick up Brissett and start him. He’s available in about 75% of ESPN leagues. And next draft, think about waiting on quarterback and taking two.
Sources: weekly stats, play-by-play and schedules with betting lines from nflverse (CC BY 4.0), 4-point passing touchdowns, PPR for running backs and receivers, Weeks 1–17. Draft position: Fantasy Football Calculator 12-team PPR (2022–2025) and ESPN (2026); Goff and Purdy’s 2026 draft position: Sleeper, Yahoo and NFL.com ADP via StackedFantasy and RotoWire. 2026 points per game are through Week 7. Projection: PigskinPal, Oct. 30. Start and roster rates: ESPN, Oct. 30. Injury news: NBC Sports. How we tested it: “late” means drafted after the 12th quarterback; top-12 finishes use points per game (8+ starts). The late pair is every pair of the 13th–24th quarterbacks drafted, starting whichever has the higher Vegas team total each week, with a waiver quarterback when neither plays. The elite quarterback is the average of the first three drafted, with the same waiver fill-in. RB/WR points compare the backs and receivers drafted near each build’s picks.
Loading comments…