The Next Rookie WR Breakouts, Part 2: Tate, Bernard and Fields + Comps

We did a deep dive on this new patch of rookie WRs: Carnell Tate, Germie Bernard, and Malachi Fields. Here are the numbers side by side with some comparisons, and how we see their careers going.

These are the rookie receivers whose teams had byes last week or this week, which is the best time to take a deep dive on the data given so far. We matched each one with a past rookie who looked like him at the same point, then used 237 drafted rookie receivers from 2012 to 2025 to estimate what comes next.

Carnell Tate and Drake London

Tate is ahead of where London was in everything except touchdowns. He has one on 51 targets. London scored 13.6 PPR points a game after his bye, and our estimate for Tate is 13.1. Tate missed Week 8 with a shoulder injury and is expected back after the bye.

Here’s what London has done since:

How we see his career going: a true No. 1 receiver, and sooner than London got there. We’d expect 1,000 yards by Year 2. Of 20 first-rounders with 6+ targets a game before their rookie bye, 16 had a 1,000-yard season in the next three years and 11 had a top-12 finish.

Germie Bernard and Diontae Johnson

This one is almost exact, and they even play for the same team. Johnson scored 10.8 PPR points a game after his bye, and our estimate for Bernard is 9.0. Bernard has played 85% or more of the snaps in every game since Week 5, and our estimate counts the early weeks when he barely played.

Here’s what Johnson has done since:

How we see his career going: a high-target starter who’s worth more in PPR, with a real shot at 1,000 yards. Of 17 Day 2 rookies with 4.5 to 6 targets a game before their bye, 10 had a 1,000-yard season in the next three years and 7 had a top-12 finish.

Malachi Fields and Alshon Jeffery

Fields is 6-foot-4 and 222 pounds, and Jeffery was listed at 6-foot-3 and 218. They have nearly the same targets and yards, but Jeffery was catching more of his. Jeffery scored 6.9 PPR points a game after his bye, and our estimate for Fields is 7.4. Fields has 13 targets in the two games (near 20% target share) since J.J. McCarthy took over at quarterback, which could lead to even better things to come.

Here’s what Jeffery did next:

How we see his career going: a starting outside receiver with big-play value, though Jeffery’s 1,421-yard Year 2 is the very high end. Fields has to catch a higher percentage of his targets to get there. Of 18 Day 2 rookies with 3.5 to 5 targets a game before their bye, 9 had a 1,000-yard season in the next three years.

Jordyn Tyson

We really don’t know yet. The eighth overall pick hasn’t played this season because of a hamstring injury, and he returned to practice on a limited basis Wednesday. We will continue to keep an eye on this progress.

Coming in Part 3: the rookies with later byes, including Makai Lemon and KC Concepcion.

How we did it: comparisons were chosen from the rookies closest in targets and PPR per game before the bye. Our estimates use season targets, season PPR and draft pick, and show PPR points a game for the rest of the season. Career groups cover rookies drafted from 2012 to 2022. WR finish is total PPR points among wide receivers. *2026 is through Week 8.

Sources: weekly stats from Sleeper, with draft picks from nflverse (CC BY 4.0). Injury reporting is linked in the story.