Are the 5-2 Browns for Real? Only 9 Teams Have Started Like This Since 1999
· By PigskinPal · 0 comments
The last time the Browns started 5-2 while being outscored, they got blown out 38–7 in Pittsburgh in October. Three months later they went back to Pittsburgh and won a playoff game, 48–37. This year’s Browns are 5-2, have been outscored by 13, and play in Pittsburgh today.
Here’s how they got to 5-2. None of the wins were by more than 4 points.
| Week | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Jaguars | L 34–10 |
| 2 | at Buccaneers | W 23–19 |
| 3 | Panthers | W 21–18 |
| 4 | Steelers | W 27–24 |
| 5 | at Jets | L 17–12 |
| 6 | Ravens | W 13–10 |
| 7 | at Titans | W 27–24 |
Since 1999, only one other team won 5 of its first 7 games by 4 points or less. The 1999 Titans, who made it all the way to the Super Bowl!
Now, most of that −13 comes from an ugly afternoon in Jacksonville. Take that game out and they’re +11. Still, +11 over six games means they’re winning by about a field goal, not blowing anybody out.
How are they doing it?
Deshaun Watson is clutch! He is leading the NFL with 5 game winning drives this year (every single Browns win). Josh Allen and Bo Nix are next with 4.
- Week 2 at Tampa: TD pass to Whiteheart with under 4 minutes left
- Week 3 vs. Carolina: 14-yard TD to Harold Fannin Jr. with 1:48 left
- Week 4 vs. Pittsburgh: Tie game with under 2 minutes on the clock, got into field goal range and Szmyt hit a 56-yarder
- Week 6 vs. Baltimore: Tie game with under 2 minutes on the clock, got into field goal range
- Week 7 at Tennessee: Tie game with under a minute on the clock, got into field goal range
The rest of the game the offense is pretty rough. They’re 26th in EPA per play. But in the 4th quarter they jump to 13th. Plus Watson has been careful with the ball, only throwing 3 picks all year.
The defense is what keeps them close enough for all that. Ranking 11th in EPA per play.
It’s not turnover luck, by the way. 9 giveaways, 9 takeaways. Dead even.
Give Todd Monken some credit
Remember where this team was. The Browns went 5-12 last year and got outscored by 100. They were 8-26 over the last two seasons, and ESPN ranked them the least watchable team in the league before this year even started.
Then Monken shows up. He was the Browns’ offensive coordinator back in 2019, spent the last three years running a successful Baltimore offense, and took over after Kevin Stefanski got fired in January. He went with Watson at QB when a lot of people wanted Shedeur Sanders, and so far that call is paying off.
His take on the Browns always being bad? “We ain’t taking that. These Browns are different.”
They already have as many wins as all of last season, and it’s only October. These Browns are in fact different.
What history says
Since 1999, 9 teams started 5-2 or better while getting outscored. Only 4 of them made the playoffs. They combined for slightly under .500 the rest of the way.
| Season | Team | Start | Point diff | Rest of season | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Falcons | 5-2 | −13 | 6-3 | Yes |
| 2004 | Jaguars | 5-2 | −4 | 4-5 | No |
| 2007 | Lions | 5-2 | −22 | 2-7 | No |
| 2010 | Buccaneers | 5-2 | −27 | 5-4 | No |
| 2020 | Bills | 5-2 | −4 | 8-1 | Yes |
| 2020 | Bears | 5-2 | −2 | 3-6 | Yes |
| 2020 | Browns | 5-2 | −21 | 6-3 | Yes |
| 2022 | Titans | 5-2 | −6 | 2-8 | No |
| 2025 | Buccaneers | 5-2 | −1 | 3-7 | No |
The 2020 Browns are the dream scenario. 6-3 the rest of the way, then that playoff win in Pittsburgh.
What to watch today
Browns at Pittsburgh, and the Steelers are 3.5-point favorites. Cleveland already beat them once this year on that last second field goal.
Pittsburgh is 5-2 too, and their defense is solid. 11th against the pass, 11th against the run. That’s a problem for a Browns offense that’s 21st throwing it and 25th running it.
Here’s what worked in Week 4:
- They got after Aaron Rodgers. 5 sacks, and he went just 22 for 40.
- Watson threw it well. 24 for 33 for 268, mostly to Denzel Boston (89 yards) and KC Concepcion (64).
The thing to watch is the Steelers’ receivers. Cleveland’s pass defense is 9th overall, but only 22nd on throws to wide receivers. DK Metcalf had 115 yards and Roman Wilson had 74 and a TD in the first game. Jaylen Warren ran for 93 too. With no Roman Wilson this week, Germie Bernard will step into that role. If Rodgers has time again, that’s how Pittsburgh flips this one.
So are the Browns for real?
I say yes. Winning by 3 isn’t luck, it’s executing late in games. And they’ve done it 5 times. This team has young WRs, a QB who’s been ice cold in crunch time, and a coach the locker room clearly believes in.
The young guys are already leading the way. Rookie Denzel Boston leads the team with 372 yards and 3 TDs. Rookie KC Concepcion leads the team with 30 catches and just had his best game, 129 yards in Tennessee. Second-year TE Harold Fannin Jr. had his best game there too, 91 yards. All three are 22.
Close wins don’t show up in the point differential, but they count the same in the standings. I’m buying the Browns. Are you?
Sources: scores, schedules and betting lines from nflverse (CC BY 4.0), regular seasons 1999–2026. Play-by-play (EPA per play, turnovers, field goals, quarter-by-quarter scoring) from nflverse. 2026 numbers are through Week 7. Game-winning drives: a 4th-quarter scoring drive that put the team ahead for good, counted from nflverse play-by-play; game times from AP game stories. Monken quote and background: Terry Pluto via WOSU/Ideastream.
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